Tourism taking a hit?

Tourism in the Fredericksburg area is up or down, depending on whom you talk to

Tourism in the Fredericksburg area is:

A. up

B. down

C. holding its own.

The answer is all of the above--depending upon whom you ask.

The number of people visiting Fredericksburg on guided tours, for example, fell from 14,015 in May of 2005 to 11,194 last May. That's a 20 percent drop, according to the latest figures available from the city's Department of Tourism Services.

"I definitely believe that gas prices are having a real impact on this area," said David Holder, Fredericksburg's economic development director. "It's one of the cases where traditionally gas increases have not dramatically hurt our area, but that was back when the price was $2.50. Now we're over $3."

And visitation is down at many Fredericksburg & Spotsylvania National Military Park sites as well. The biggest decline was reported at Chatham, which saw attendance fall from 3,652 visits in July 2005 to 2,290 last month. That's a 37 percent drop.

The fact that the National Scout Jamboree at Fort A.P. Hill sent visitation soaring in 2005 may account for some of the decrease in visitation this year compared with last, said Gregory A. Mertz, the park's supervisory historian.

Yet Gari Melchers Home and Studio at Belmont in Falmouth has seen a surge in visitation since it started hosting classes, exhibits and special events at its new Studio Pavilion, which opened in May. It zoomed to 1,523 visits that month compared with 949 in May of 2005, a 60 percent increase.

Last month's figures, the latest available, totaled 1,344 visits compared with 1,024 in July 2005, a 31 percent increase.

"Overall tour attendance is comparable to the average for the past five years, except last year during construction," said David Barreth, director of the historic attraction in Stafford County. "The difference is that special-event attendance--including rentals and museum-sponsored programs--has doubled with the opening of our new facility."

About half of the people who visit Belmont are from out of town, he said, and his staff hasn't noticed any drop-off in their visitation due to higher gas prices.

"Many of the out-of-towners are family and friends of locals, touring the area together," Barreth said.

Meanwhile area golf courses, which got a boost after hiring Go Golf Travel in 2004 to package and promote golfing vacations here, are seeing yearly sales stabilize at around $350,000.

"I don't think we're getting many new golfers in, but we're maintaining our business very well," said Bobby Lewis, president of the Fredericksburg Area Golf Co-op and vice president of golf operations for Meadows Farms Golf Course in Locust Grove.

Nationally, people are still taking vacations, and about 80 percent are using the family car or minivan to get there, according to Martha Meade, AAA Mid-Atlantic spokeswoman.

"We have not seen a significant change in people traveling because of gas prices," she said. "What they've said in our surveys is that, yes, it is impacting their everyday life, and they're trying to cut back. But when it comes to that cherished family vacation, they're not willing to give that up."

However, AAA Mid-Atlantic's findings also indicated that people may be choosing destinations that are closer to home, although they were not specifically asked the length of their trips, Meade said.

That could benefit the Fredericksburg area, since half the country's population lives within a day's drive of Virginia, said Bob Carter, Stafford County's assistant director of economic development.

"If I'm in Connecticut and it takes three days to get to Orlando or two to get to Hilton Head, I can get to Virginia in less time, have almost the same visitor experience and have more money to spend when I get there," he said.

Taxable meals sales in Fredericksburg, for example, were $12.4 million in May, up 0.8 percent from $12.3 million during the same month in 2005. And taxable lodging sales were $1.65 million last May, up 19 percent from $1.39 million in May of 2005, according to the city's tourism department.

Vacation patterns also are changing, with more families taking off on Friday for a long weekend trip instead of spending a week or more at the beach or in the mountains. That's evident in the traffic on Interstate 95, which is heaviest in the southbound lanes on Fridays and Saturdays during the summer, and in the northbound lanes on Sundays.

That, too, could benefit this area since it is close to the day-trip market in Washington and Baltimore, according to Carter.

"They may come here, but not spend the night," he said.

Fredericksburg Area Tourism, the regional tourism marketing cooperative for Fredericksburg and the counties of Stafford and Spotsylvania, has already started taking steps to boost awareness of the area as a tourist destination, Holder said. This includes rerunning a 30-minute infomercial about area attractions called "Discover Fredericksburg" on WTVR Channel 6 in Richmond last month.

"If gas prices are indeed a reason that visitations are off, then focusing that effort at WTVR, which stretches from Richmond to Fredericksburg, was a way to build nearby drive traffic that's not going to be as heavily influenced by the amount they pay at at the pump," Holder said.

In addition, Canadian consulting firm Longwoods International is studying the effectiveness of Fredericksburg Area Tourism's latest marketing campaign, so tweaks can be made, he said. It should be ready by November.

"It's one of those scary times in the tourism business," Holder said, "but it's also a time where we need to be a little bit smarter and strategic at getting our message out."